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Egypt Applauds U.S. Promise to Mediate in Deadlocked Nile Dispute

Egypt Applauds U.S. Promise to Mediate in Deadlocked Nile Dispute

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Wed, 01/21/2026 – 21:16

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Michael Wahid Hanna. CRISIS GROUP

Analyst's Notebook

/ Middle East & North Africa
21 January 2026
2 minutes

Egypt Applauds U.S. Promise to Mediate in Deadlocked Nile Dispute

Crisis Group expert Michael Wahid Hanna analyses Trump’s latest peacemaking gesture, related to the dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over a dam on the Nile.

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Michael Wahid Hanna

Program Director, U.S.

https://twitter.com/mwhanna1

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Egypt

A letter sent from the White House to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on 16 January outlined U.S. President Donald Trump’s willingness to reprise efforts to mediate in the diplomatic deadlock over Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Cairo, which regards the dam as one of its most pressing national security concerns, had made its request for U.S. involvement in the dispute a foreign policy priority. Sisi welcomed Trump’s initiative, while Sudan, the other downstream country affected by the dam, also expressed its support for U.S. mediation.Following the tensions in U.S.-Egyptian relations in the Trump administration’s early months, the letter reflects the improvement in bilateral ties that dates from the two countries’ efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza in October 2025. Soon after returning to the presidency, Trump unsettled relations with Egypt through his “Riviera” plan for Gaza, which contemplated U.S. stewardship of the strip and exacerbated longstanding Egyptian fears of mass displacement of Palestinians to neighbouring states. Sisi reacted swiftly, publicly rejecting displacement as a threat to Egypt’s national security and cancelling a planned visit to Washington.A diplomatic breakthrough over the dam nevertheless seems far off. The offer of mediation reflects a familiar pattern of U.S. engagement on the issue, reaffirming Egypt’s core concerns while giving little detail as to how Washington could broker a settlement. The GERD, inaugurated in September 2025, is now Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam and is seen by Ethiopia as a symbol of its sovereignty that is also vital for its economic transformation. But Cairo, with its dependence on the Nile, maintains that the dam is not merely an infrastructure project but an existential issue that affects its national security by threatening access to the river’s waters. Egypt is demanding an agreement with Ethiopia on joint mechanisms governing oversight and operation of the dam, particularly as it relates to drought mitigation.In highlighting the Nile’s importance to Egypt, reiterating opposition to unilateral action on the shared river system and presenting the dispute as one that can be resolved through U.S.-led technical negotiations, Trump’s letter echoes many of Egypt’s longstanding demands. But the White House’s stance has its drawbacks. It is likely to complicate bilateral ties with Ethiopia and may undermine Washington’s ability to alleviate worsening Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions. Critically, Trump’s proposal seems to offer little that could meaningfully alter the strategic calculus of Ethiopia, which has resisted entering any agreement that reduces its freedom to use the dam as it pleases. Previous efforts at U.S. mediation during Trump’s first term in office failed to produce an agreement.Egypt will be satisfied with any effort to raise the international profile of the Nile dispute, and Trump will be keen to highlight another entry in his conflict prevention prospectus. But the bewildering shifts of U.S. foreign policymaking raise major questions about the attention Washington can give an issue where the prospects of a quick resolution are remote.

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